Friday brings us the September Jobs Report and it will set the tone for the market. Or will the Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:Nasdaq) preannounced miss after hours set the tone?
I am inclined to think we pay close attention to AMD to see if it can hold. It’s not a great chart. AMD hasn’t been a good chart but if it doesn’t break the recent lows on this news then maybe it has another rally in it. I’d be a seller in that $73-75 area if it can get there.
Then there are bonds. What if the Jobs Report comes in weaker than expected? Bonds should rally. If the report is stronger, then obviously bonds should go down (rates up). I am still in the camp that somewhere in this general area bonds should find some support. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT:Nasdaq) could not get over $105 but can a bad report break that spike low of nearly two weeks ago? Spike lows tend to hold on the first trip to revisit them.
Aside from that we saw, prior to Thursday's action, a sentiment shift. We saw the NAAIM Exposure lift from 10 last week to near 40 this week.
We also saw the AAII bulls move up to 24% and the bears fall six points to 55%.
And finally, we saw the put/call ratios drop to the 0.90 area where they had been over 1.0 or in the upper 0.90s prior to this.
I still think we should have another rally before we get overbought so let's see if the market accommodates my view.
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) - Get Free Report did breakout but chasing in this market has been a terrible tactic so I’d like to see a pullback toward $40-ish now where I would buy, but I would also keep a tight stop.
I have had several questions about the Utes, the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) - Get Free Report so I thought I would address them. You might recall I did not like them at the highs, but I thought around $70 they should hold. I was quite wrong since they breezed right through that area. They are coming into support now in this $64-65 area so I would expect a bounce from there but if they are going to hold and be OK I think there will be more work to be done here. I’m not sure there is a rush.
The 10-day moving average of the put/call ratio has rolled over.
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I was asked about the potential base in the chart of Cummins (CMI) - Get Free Report. I too have been eying it except when I pull the chart back to a two-year chart I see so much resistance at $235. I suspect the stock gets there. I am just not sure if it can break out and make a run beyond that. The one thing we have learned about this market is that chasing is a bad idea. So I’d play it for a trade only at this point.’
I have not been a fan of Meta Platforms (META:Nasdaq) for some time now but if the market can rally one more time I would not be surprised with a run up to that $150-155 area.
Union Pacific (UNP) - Get Free Report broke down (blue line) in September so I don’t much care for the chart. I think it is oversold enough to rally again, though. Here’s the issue: the top measured by the black line measures to $195-200 so I don’t want to be too bearish on the stock here as it reached a target. I just can’t get excited unless the stock can get up and over $205 to make this look like a false breakdown. For now all I see is an oversold bounce.