Not much happened in the market during regular trading hours today. After hours, however, there are plenty of stocks moving. The question is if they will move the indexes, because with the exception of Nasdaq, the daily net change in the indexes was zilch.
Usually we might cite that breadth was different. But it wasn’t. It, too, was flat. We might cite there were more new highs or new lows. Again, not much there. New highs are still sleepy and new lows, while they contracted last week, crept up a smidgen for Nasdaq this week. About the only interesting statistic is sentiment. This week folks started buying calls like they haven’t in months. Yesterday, I noted the total put/call ratio was .65, which was the lowest since January, just prior to the GameStop (GME) - Get Free Report fiasco. Today was .69, so the call buying continued at a furious pace, despite the flat market.
What’s more, the put/call ratio for exchange-traded funds on Monday sunk to .61, which is the lowest such reading since it was .58 on Aug. 25, just before the market took a tumble. Then there are the bonds. Interest rates went up today, and the market shrugged. I have thought for a while we are more apt to see iShares Barclays 20-plus Year Treasury Bond (TLT:Nasdaq) stay in a range from here, since it bottomed in mid-March.
The Fed opines tomorrow, and if there is any talk of tapering -— any at all -— that uptrend line on TLT will be well-watched.
Today was a chopfest. Yesterday was a chopfest for stocks that weren’t speculative. And, yet, sentiment feels complacent again -- especially considering the Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) for the Volatility Index is back at 12.
I find myself drawn to the chart of Nordstrom (JWN) - Get Free Report, but since I believe the market is due for another bout of volatility, I hesitate. However, a move up and over that line at $38-$39 could get folks interested. I’d use a tight stop under today’s low area.
The McClellan Summation Index is heading up, but know that one day of poor breadth could turn it back down again. A net differential of negative 600 advancers minus decliners on the New York Stock Exchange would halt the rise.
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Winnebago (WGO) - Get Free Report had a nice mini-breakout yesterday, but is bumping up against some resistance now. I would like to see it digest the move, before it tries to get through to a higher high (so it won’t exhaust itself on that move). The one caveat is that it needs to get through that old high and it needs to not break under the uptrend line. Digestion or moving sideways would be helpful.
Zynga (ZNGA:Nasdaq) got to resistance and now needs to go sideways, back and fill, before I think it can go again. Look at the way it moved in late March and early April and then spent two weeks dipping, consolidating. That’s what it looks like it needs to me. So a pullback to the $10.50-$10.75 area.
Beam Therapeutics (BEAM:Nasdaq) has improved, but there is resistance the whole way up, so I would want to see it cross that downtrend line first, before I trust it. Then I would like it to rally and pullback as I have drawn in. That would make the chart improve and help us to feel as though that resistance is being eaten through.
Penn National Gaming (PENN:Nasdaq) broke down and should now measure down to that $70 area. If it cannot recapture $100 in a hurry, that would be the way it should play out.
VanEck Vectors Gold Miners (GDX) - Get Free Report, an exchange-traded fund for the gold miners, reached resistance and is now in the process of pulling back. I would buy it on a pullback to the $34-$35 area with a stop under $33.50. Why a stop? Because if it breaks under that line I’ve drawn, then it tells me there is more work to be done and I don’t want to sit through it.