There were some extremes in today's market, so let's get right to them.
The first extreme was oil. Today was the day folks downgraded oil stocks left and right. Today was the day the targets for oil under $40 came fast and furious. Today was also the day the Daily Sentiment Index sunk under 10 for the first time since February 2016 (a major low in oil stocks). So yes, I can see a bounce but I do not see a low. Yet.
We are finally starting to see the oil decline show up in the high-yield market. Since this has yet to capture everyone's attention (so far, very few), my guess is more will notice it.
The number of stocks making new lows on the NYSE expanded to 120 today, the highest reading since Dec. 1. So for oil stocks to be at a low (as opposed to a bounce level), I like to see fewer new lows and we haven't seen that yet. A bounce and another move down are standard for the stocks, to form a W pattern.
So the bottom line on oil: I think we see a bounce but not a "low."
Next is the move in the utilities that no one seemed to notice or care about. We looked at them a few days ago when I noted they looked vulnerable to a decline. Notice that the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) - Get Free Report is finally closing in on that gap we looked at months ago. That should stall out bonds for a bit. Let me note that this chart shows the gap at $128 and another chart I have shows it at $130. At $130, I think the 10-year yield will be at 2% or close to it and that is a measured target. Be on the alert that the move in rates we've seen in the last few months could/should see a correction, perhaps as we move into the new quarter.
Finally, the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) - Get Free Report, which we looked at here as recently as Monday, has had a spectacular week and everyone is so excited over it. The short-term target is right around here at $315 to $320. Longer term, there is a target near $350. I would expect a pullback or a digestion from this short-term target zone.
The overall market remains a mess, in my view. Breadth on the NYSE is not good. Net volume on Nasdaq is good. The small-caps have faltered along with the banks and complacency runs high.
I don't think First Solar (FSLR:Nasdaq) is going to run away on us. but the bottom is intriguing to me. As long as it can hold over $34, this has a bottoming feel, and if it gets over $40 it improves even more.
Several have inquired about IBM (IBM) - Get Free Report. Several months ago, I said if it breaks $172, I thought the stock would go down. It hasn't disappointed us on that score. It hasn't made a new low yet and perhaps it can hold over $152 and improve, but thus far I haven't seen any reason to get excited about it nor have I seen a reason to get much more bearish on it. If it breaks under $152 I would get bearish again.
The Volume Indicator has sat at 50% for weeks and weeks.
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I am staring at the chart of CF Industries (CF) - Get Free Report to see if it looks like it could be bottoming, and I am unconvinced. If it can hold $26 and rally, I would feel much better about it because I'd like to see a higher low before I get long. But at least we have a clear level.
That's quite a reversal for CBS (CBS) - Get Free Report today. I might even call it a very short- term head-and-shoulders bottom that, if it can get over $63, would measure right to the spot it broke down from: $66.
I was asked to look at the long- and short-term charts of Schlumberger (SLB) - Get Free Report. In the short term, it's made a new low, but each time it has done so and tagged this line, it has bounced. So unless it gaps up over $68 and leaves an island down below, that's the resistance area.
Longer term, there might actually be some good news as well. The measured target from that top is around $63-$65 (depends how thick your pencil is). But there is no sign of bottoming, just the possibility that it has hit a measured target. I would say if we see the bounce from the short-term chart's line and then see some sideways action, perhaps we can finally begin the bottoming process. But thus far there is nothing there.